Lab templates¶

The ready-made experiments the policy and stress lab offers, and that template(id, years) returns in a script. Each changes one lever (or applies one stress), so an effect has one cause. Every number in them is a stated assumption you can change before running. The arms are shown here as built for a 10-year run; a stress that lasts "the whole run" scales with the years you choose.

Limits for any experiment: at most 6 arms, 64 seeds and 40 years, and 800 province-years in all (seeds × years × runs per seed, the baseline included).

For actuaries¶

SAM life stresses on the burial society¶

sam-life-stresses · Does the burial society survive the standard formula's life stresses, lived through rather than assumed?

Arm	Changes
Mortality +15% on every age (`mortality-15`)	SAM mortality stress +15%: mortality ×1.15 at every age, from month 0 for 120 months
Catastrophe: +1.5‰ of lives in one month (`catastrophe`)	SAM catastrophe month: mortality ×2.8 at every age, from month 12 for 1 month

Leads with: Burial society reserve at the end, Burial society ruined, Claims / premiums, Deaths: actual / expected.

A pandemic year¶

pandemic-year · What does a year of pandemic mortality, heaviest among the old, do to deaths, the society and the economy?

Arm	Changes
Year two: ×1.25 all ages, ×1.8 at 60 and over (`pandemic`)	Pandemic: all ages ×1.25: mortality ×1.25 at every age, from month 12 for 12 months; Pandemic: 60 and over a further ×1.44: mortality ×1.44 at ages 60 to 110, from month 12 for 12 months

Leads with: Deaths per 1,000 a year, Life expectancy at birth, Burial society reserve at the end, Claims / premiums.

Is the funeral premium adequate?¶

premium-adequacy · How do the society's reserve and its chance of ruin move if the premium is cut or raised by a fifth?

Arm	Changes
Premium −20% (R96) (`premium-down`)	`funeralPremium`: `96` (default `120`)
Premium +20% (R144) (`premium-up`)	`funeralPremium`: `144` (default `120`)

Leads with: Burial society reserve at the end, Burial society ruined, Claims / premiums, Households with funeral cover.

A rate shock¶

rate-shock · What does 300 basis points on the repo rate for two years do to households, the bank and the society?

Arm	Changes
Repo +300 bp in years two and three (`repo-300`)	Rate stress +300 bp: repo +300 bp, from month 12 for 24 months

Leads with: Household debt at the end, Household savings at the end, Unemployment (last year), Burial society reserve at the end.

For governments¶

Raise the old-age grant¶

old-age-grant · What does a 20% higher older persons grant cost the fiscus, and what does it buy in poverty and health?

Arm	Changes
Old-age grant +20% (R2,880) (`grant-up`)	`oldAgeGrant`: `2,880` (default `2,400`)

Leads with: Social grants a year, Households in poverty (last year), Income Gini (last year), Life expectancy at birth, Fiscal balance a year.

Raise the child support grant¶

child-grant · What does a child support grant of R800 cost, and how far does it move child poverty and child deaths?

Arm	Changes
Child support grant R800 (`csg-800`)	`childGrant`: `800` (default `580`)

Leads with: Social grants a year, Households in poverty (last year), Under-five deaths per 1,000 births, Fiscal balance a year.

Raise the minimum wage¶

minimum-wage · Does a 15% higher national minimum wage lift incomes, or cost jobs?

Arm	Changes
Minimum wage +15% (R34.76/h) (`nmw-15`)	`minimumWageHourly`: `34.76` (default `30.23`)

Leads with: Unemployment (last year), Households in poverty (last year), Income Gini (last year), Real GDP per resident (last year).

An oil price shock¶

oil-shock · What does Brent at 1.8 times its path for a year do to prices, the repo rate, fares and household budgets?

Arm	Changes
Brent ×1.8 from month six for a year (`oil-18`)	Oil shock ×1.8: Brent ×1.8, from month 6 for 12 months

Leads with: Inflation, a year on average, Households in poverty (last year), Household debt at the end, Real GDP per resident (last year).

Funeral cover for every household¶

funeral-cover-for-all · If every household joined the burial society, does the pool hold, and what does it do to debt after a death?

Arm	Changes
Every household covered from the start (`cover-all`)	`funeralCoverShare`: `1` (default `0.75`); and the same in every settlement tier (`tiers`)

Leads with: Households with funeral cover, Burial society reserve at the end, Burial society ruined, Household debt at the end.

Better clinics¶

better-clinics · What do clinics with better care (quality 0.8 instead of 0.55) do to deaths, admissions and life expectancy?

Arm	Changes
Clinic care quality 0.8 (`care-08`)	`careQuality`: `0.8` (default `0.55`)

Leads with: Life expectancy at birth, Deaths per 1,000 a year, Hospital admissions per 1,000 a year, Under-five deaths per 1,000 births.

Medical aid for more households¶

medical-aid · If half of all households had medical aid, how do care-seeking, deaths and household budgets change?

Arm	Changes
Medical aid for half of households (`medical-50`)	`medicalAidShare`: `0.5` (default `0.3`); and the same in every settlement tier (`tiers`)

Leads with: Life expectancy at birth, Hospital admissions per 1,000 a year, Household savings at the end, Households in poverty (last year).